Declining numbers

The global financial crisis has already negatively affected Russia’s aerospace industry. After several years of growing air transportation Russian airlines experienced a sharp decline in passenger and cargo traffic and began to revise their fleet renewal plans. The slumping demand for new aircraft made the Russian manufacturers cut their production plans for commercial airliners by more than one half compared to previous estimations announced at the end of 2007. In late April 2009 the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC), the holding company which controls all the Russian fixed-wing aircraft manufacturers, trimmed its medium-term production plans in accordance with the new market realities.
The UAC board of directors on April 29 approved an amended plan of civil aircraft production for 2009-12. "The necessity of amending the plan was caused by a negative impact of the global financial crisis, which had initiated a downturn in the air transport market and a decrease in orders for commercial passenger and cargo aircraft," the board of directors stated.
During the airline boom of the second half of 2007, Russian aircraft makers were planning to produce 15 Ilyushin Il-96 widebodies (both in the -300 and the newer -400 modifications), 84 Tupolev Tu-204/214 narrowbodies, as well as more than 300 regional jets: 96 Antonov An-148s, 236 Sukhoi Superjet 100s and Tupolev Tu-334s. The total number of commercial jets to be manufactured by the end of 2012 was planned at 431 aircraft.
The reduced plan, as approved by the board of directors, calls for production of only 196 commercial aircraft by 2013, including nine Il-96s, 58 Tu-204s, 74 Superjet 100s, 44 An-148s, as well as 11 Beriev Be-200 amphibian aircraft. The most precipitous decline – of up to 60% compared to earlier plans - is expected for regional jets. Furthermore, the Tu-334 jet has been completely omitted from the UAC production program. According to the corporation, the new program takes into account only contracts already signed and agreements in final stages of negotiations.
Nevertheless, the United Aircraft Corporation has included in the program the expected purchases of Tu-204 airliners by the Rosavia air carrier, which is being formed at the moment by the Russian Technologies corporation. Although the airline has not started operations yet, Russian Technologies in May signed a preliminary agreement with the UAC on long-term deliveries of domestically manufactured commercial aircraft. Within the next six years Rosavia plans to purchase 63 airliners from the Russian industry: 14 Tu-204s and 49 regional jets. As for the latter, the choice is expected to be made between Superjet 100s and Russian-assembled An-148s. The agreement also mentions future purchases of up to 100 MS-21 short- to medium-range aircraft. These should start from 2015, after the MS-21 development and certification are completed.
In this difficult situation the UAC board has attempted to preserve some optimism, mentioning that the revised plan for 2009 "calls for an increase in production of civil aircraft as compared to the 2008 results". This year the Russian aerospace industry is expected to manufacture 22 commercial aircraft, including four Il-96s, 10 Tu-204/214s, two Superjet 100s, four An-148s and two Beriev Be-200 amphibians.
The Sukhoi Civil Aircraft Company defines the UAC-approved plan for the production of 74 Superjets in 2009-12 as "a highly pessimistic estimate of the market potential", and hopes that airlines will order more Sukhoi regional jets. At the moment the Superjet 100 order backlog totals 98 aircraft.
But the crisis has not affected the military programs, apparently due to the government’s efforts to preserve the Armed Forces’ procurement budget. All the manufacturing plans for combat and transport aircraft, which are not disclosed to the general public, remain intact, the UAC board’s statement says.